Description: From session 14TS at a meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Diego, CA, June 22-23, 2000. This teaching session discusses the available tools for communicating company risk postures to senior management. The focus is on tools that show distributions of results rather than a point estimate, along with stress testing.

Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: Many call this the sub-prime crisis, but risky mortgages were simply symptomatic of the underlying excesses building through the financial system. Investors, government, lenders and borrowers were all at fault. Where did the skeptics go?

Description: Since 2008 the Joint Risk Management Section, sponsored in partnership by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), has annually conducted a Survey of Emerging Risks. As the researcher for this project, I have asked open-ended questions thought to be useful to risk managers. Andy Grove noted the importance of viewing problems from an outsider’s perspective. After a strategy he implemented had struggled, he hypothesized how the strategy would change if he was fired. This paper summarizes activities that are perceived as adding value by risk managers. Each company is unique based on the skill set of the risk team and needs of the firm, many of which are strategic and can be fulfilled through well thought out scenario testing. These can be split into eight themes.

Description: This is the key findings research report for the fifteenth Emerging Risk Survey